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improved forecast quality through ’deep strategy’ brought on by dynamic scenario planning, the best way to understand and control corporate risks

scenario’s of the future are not science fiction but predictive intelligence


Truth 1. No one can predict the future.
Hence, there is not such a thing like the ‘right’ forecast.

But: The future has a memory and if you haven’t thought it over you cannot see it.
You cannot make the right decisions if you did not check your strategies against possible visions of the future.

Scenario planning therefore is not an end in itself but a tool to improve the forecasting process, the forecast itself and utterly, company performance.
Scenario thinking and scenario planning allow getting a more realistic assessment of risk which lets you prepare optimally for the future.
Although in a volatile and fast-changing world a great many events cannot be prepared for, the key is responding quickly and effectively to the bolt from the blue.
Once the ‘scenario’ exercise done, facing reality, anticipating and dealing with events will be better and faster, leading to a competitive advantage.



Truth 2. A lot of people have difficulty holding more than one variable in their minds at once.
As a result, in the absence of scenario planning, a number of decisions are purely based on gut-feel.


Our drug-specific, patient/disease-based, event-driven forecast models’ fast scenario development allows the dynamic analysis of key business variables in real time, thus providing a quantitative basis for decisions in stead of a purely qualitative judgment.
Anticipating risk and opportunity, measuring impact, testing assumptions, quantifying trade offs are immediately within reach.

In addition the models are extremely versatile, making it possible to work with several layers of scenario detail and time periods to fit the forecast purpose: whether for assessment of in-licensing candidate, potential of pipeline compound, new indication, product line extension, portfolio forecast, budget impact, … for one country, multiple countries or any grouping of countries, by year or multi-year period up to 15 years.

On top of that, equipped with the latest dashboard technology, they help you keep control of the driving!

Main uses are in strategic planning, brand management, operational budgeting, business development, long range forecasting,…
 

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