improved forecast quality through ’deep strategy’ brought on by
dynamic scenario planning, the best way to understand and
control corporate risks
scenario’s of the future are not science fiction but predictive
Truth 1. No one can predict the future.
Hence, there is not such a thing like the ‘right’ forecast.
But: The future has a memory and if you haven’t thought it over
you cannot see it.
You cannot make the right decisions if you did not check your
strategies against possible visions of the future.
Scenario planning therefore is not an end in itself but a tool
to improve the forecasting process, the forecast itself and
utterly, company performance.
Scenario thinking and scenario planning allow getting a more
realistic assessment of risk which lets you prepare optimally
for the future.
Although in a volatile and fast-changing world a great many
events cannot be prepared for, the key is responding quickly and
effectively to the bolt from the blue.
Once the ‘scenario’ exercise done, facing reality, anticipating
and dealing with events will be better and faster, leading to a
Truth 2. A lot of people have difficulty holding more than
one variable in their minds at once.
As a result, in the absence of scenario planning, a number of
decisions are purely based on gut-feel.
Our drug-specific, patient/disease-based, event-driven forecast
models’ fast scenario development allows the dynamic analysis of
key business variables in real time, thus providing a
quantitative basis for decisions in stead of a purely
Anticipating risk and opportunity, measuring impact, testing
assumptions, quantifying trade offs are immediately within
In addition the models are extremely versatile, making it
possible to work with several layers of scenario detail and time
periods to fit the forecast purpose: whether for assessment of
in-licensing candidate, potential of pipeline compound, new
indication, product line extension, portfolio forecast, budget
impact, … for one country, multiple countries or any grouping of
countries, by year or multi-year period up to 15 years.
On top of that, equipped with the latest dashboard technology,
they help you keep control of the driving!
Main uses are in strategic planning, brand management, operational budgeting,
business development, long range forecasting,…
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